Investment Strategy Insights

The latest research & strategic thinking from Tristan Capital Partners

From Simon Martin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Research

Price levels and inflation are different things but ...

It doesnt matter that much to consumers if their purchasing power is maintained but if their incomes haven't kept pace with the change in the price level ... then they perceive inflation as a high even if yoy growth rate has fallen back ... nice article on this here ...





US cities ...

Activity is nowhere near where it should be for an 'urban' society ...

Agreed ...

Its not inflation that's the problem ... its the uncertainty associated with inflation vol that is ... the question is as follows:
Given volatile commodity prices, geopol tension, expansionary fiscal and tight labour markets can you reasonably expect a reduction in inflation vol and uncertainty over the next five years ??

My response would be not really ... but that long term rates have probably now priced it in... the people who haven't yet priced it in fully are those sitting in the boards and offices of our central banks ...

Succinctly put ...

Yes some concerns are now circulating about a 'boom' and yes more regulation will likely appear in the sector over time ... but I thought this summary was very succinct...
Truth is bank capital charges and Basel regs are making it increasingly hard for banks to make loans to private businesses unless they are very very conservatively positioned in the capital stack ... and the gap is being filled by pension and insurance capital ...

Just a thought...

Current consensus is higher for longer ... but given where the central banks hiked to sticky US CPI is putting us on the pathway to high real rates which implies recession ... that's not consensus right now ... so maybe its time to think creatively about how to go against the consensus (read to the bottom!!)