Investment Strategy Insights

The latest research & strategic thinking from Tristan Capital Partners

From Simon Martin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Research

Hmmm...



Fully loaded ...

Inner ... contrarian ... screaming...


From BB today ...


The slide below is my version of the same chart (that I've been using since Nov 2023) ... the gray dotted line is the long run average ratio ... so my take would be that is that we are not yet close to normalisation ... the Fed must therefore (based on what it is saying) be assuming that the jobs market is going to weaken quite sharply over the next quarter...


As the chart shows ... the response of the labour market to tightening cycles s unpredictable and non-linear ... so the chances of flooring precisely at 5% seem to be low ...