Investment Strategy Insights

The latest research & strategic thinking from Tristan Capital Partners

From Simon Martin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Research

Consensus for 2023...

My eyes immediately honed in on the US vs EU forecast for GDP growth for 2023 ... and the US falling behind the EU!!!


Musing on Mexico ...

I have always been and remain a huge fan of John Authers @ Bloomberg ... and I read his article today with interest ... I know nothing about Mexico but had been thinking for a while that it might be a partial beneficiary from US corps looking to bring production closer to home (near-shroing rather than re-shoring)... this article dives a little deeper ...




Volcker ...

The demographics over this period were extremely powerful - adding lots of momentum to GDP growth ... so getting on top of inflation required a positive real rate spread ... it took Paul Volcker to achieve that ... the prior Fed governors didn't get ahead of that dynamic because at the time the orthodox view was that the economy needed to run hot to maintain nearly full employment ... and because working age population was growing ... hot meant red hot ... that philosophy created imbalances that broke the Bretton Woods system and a 20% deval of the USD poured petrol on the flames ...