Investment Strategy Insights

The latest research & strategic thinking from Tristan Capital Partners

From Simon Martin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Research

For those of you that like to 'geek' out on natural rates ...

The HLW series has returned (having stopped publishing it during covid the NY Fed has brought it back to life)...

And the scoop is ... they don't think anything has changed ... which is kinda important because even if you don't believe in r-star (and many don't) ... if the Fed believes in it ... it will have an impact on policy ...


Great charts from Rosie...

I think people forget ... whatever the inflation environment might be ... once recessions start there is always a dramatic decline in 10yr yields ... and in inflation ... and that the key variable that triggers the move is the fed funds rate being cut ... oh and the average rate cut into a loosening cycle in the US is over 500bps ... might be smaller this time but remember the Fed thinks neutral is 2.5% ... that's still alot of cutting!!