Very clear reminder that Germany is seeing significant increases in unemployment ...
Belly of the curve is headed for 2 ...
Wow...
Even the Fed's trusty 'beigebook' is pointing to a recession...
I'm not terribly reassured by the leading description ... a slip into 'negative' in the past has been very quickly by the most rapid of slides ...
If ...
Migration was the perceived problem then it seems that Brexit and those border controls were not the answer!!
What is the right 'neutral rate'?
There is a lot of wonkish debate about neutral rates - and it can get quite heated as R* is impossible to observe and verify ...
But the debate still rages - because in practice r-star's are used extensively as an anchor for monetary policy decision makers and central bankers ...
This note comes from the BoE ... a the very end of their analysis they suggest that they don't think the world has changed much ... the real neutral rates is not far off zero ... simply because the biggest drivers of change in their estimate of the rate come from longevity (which drives more precautionary saving and isnt changing) and productivity (which might change given AI but has consistently refused to budge) ...
Tug of war time ...
I think the ECB will want to talk tough to prevent the rate market from front running its changes and loosening financial conditions too much ... it will still want to see unemployment in its anchor economies rise to a level more consistent with its target ... but in all honesty this is good news for CRE ...
Nice visual clue as to where German RE opportunities will emerge ...
The collapse in resi permitting is a very clear signal to the stress and distress ...
Put that into context across Europe & globally ... remembering that almost the entire German CRE REIT universe is regulated RESI ...
Swedish (broken) house mafia ...
Interesting ...
Fed governor speaks ...
