Interesting ...
US gateway cities ...
Gateway to what ??? Unprecedented populations shifts and changes that are impacting US office vacancy ...
No words necessary!
Just as natgas cost was a big drag on EU real incomes ...
So the reversal will help ease some of the pain of higher rates ...
Interesting chart
US construction spending on office was tracking at 20-30% growth annually from 2012 thru 2020 ... alot of which got spent (my guess) in gateway tech cities ... building very large buildings ... which I think explains why vacancy is so high in pre 2000's office assets ...
Tick tock ...
Most jobs recessions start 12-15 months into a tightening cycle ... and cost 200bps on the rate ...
Factors that have slowed the speed with which rate hikes impact the real economy ...
Worth remembering that the Fed might have be pumping the brake pedal but visible signs of the economy slowing in response also requires that the real economic participants take their foot of the accelerator ... and right now no-one is backing off ... because ...
Personal savings surplus allowing consumers to ignore the Fed ...
Fat margins and high profits allowing firms to hold back on layoffs and ignore the Fed ...
Banks however can't ignore the Fed and ultimately both consumer spending and small businesses that employ them need credit ... and cost of credit is not always the same thing as the supply ... particularly if the Fed starts QT again ....
Not part of my usual menu of chart data but ...
Computational power x speed of adoption strikes me as being a measure of something ... not quite sure what ... someone must have made it 'law' and given it a 'name'????
UBS on inflation rates ...
We all need to be careful that we don't fall into the trap that we fell into when we all thought that inflation was 'transitory' by assuming that it is inevitable that inflation is now 'stubborn' ... fool me once ...
UK & EU labour dynamics remains interwoven!
