Tristan's Real-Time Research Feed by Simon Martin,
Head of Investment Strategy & Research

There is a big difference between perceived and realised risk - this blog seeks to close the gap!

Hotel occupancy...

80% there ... but still not back to normal levels ... current surge in cases may slow this down ...

Pretty much perfect ... Goldilocks returns ...

Breaking out of the lowflation/deflation post GFC trend ...
Into a better GDP growth environment (less austerity, more fiscal support, more capex)...

With no need to panic about CPI risk ...

Gavekal are broadly correct ...

Markets tend to look through inflation in the short run ... it takes 2 or 3 years of persistently high price rises to shake their faith in central banks ... and even then in some markets the tolerance for high CPI is elevated