Investment Strategy Insights

The latest research & strategic thinking from Tristan Capital Partners

From Simon Martin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Research

Chart crime ...

This one is a mother-of-all simply because it's from the IMF blog ... (and no that's not the Mission Impossible IMF)

So for their chart of the week they have analysed the price corrections during tightening cycles ... which is fine ... but note this isn't a chart of the full effect of a tightening cycle ... it is just the effect while rates were going up ... which means that 2008-2010 is not on the chart ...

Which makes this title a bit much ...
Really this is a chart that shows price elasticity in response to rate movements ... and it tells us that faster rate rises causes faster price falls ... whereas slow one's cause ... well ... slow one's ...

No s**t Sherlock ... Paul Volcker could have told you that 50 years ago ... go figure ...

TBH the only thing standing between us and a recovery in CRE markets in Europe is ...


US GDP ... which in practice is US deficit spending growth + AI-capex ... the ROW is in recession ... and rates are being held up by the fear of fighting the Fed ... mind you the longer this goes on ... the bigger the potential shift in the yield curve when the Fed blinks ...

#higherforlongerdoesn'tmeanhigherforever ...


So it took me a while to figure out ...

But what seems clear to me ... after alot of staring ... is that Europe has low inflation that's decelerating quick - central Europe had the worst spike but is now falling back ...


David Rosenberg ...

A pinch of wisdom that goes a long way ...