...given the scale of this slowdown ... but in practice it would be very unusual for such a rapid tightening cycle to achieve a landing that is this soft!
Seems weird to think of this as an 'optimistic' picture...
Dutch are a huge outlier when it comes to being green!
Pretty much sums 2022 up so far ...
Recessions don't come along regularly ...
but if you hang around for long enough you will get to earn your spurs!
Striking scale of US stock drawdown...
Major rodeo ride!
US GDP ... bad news + good news!
GDP down ... rates down ...
Difference between nominal & real is striking!
For me this is how you should define stagflation ... positive nom ... zero real ... and I'd say a recession is flat nom/negative real - a depression is negative nom ...
Oh and I still firmly believe that if nom GDP>nom 10yr rate - you should be o/w real assets...
The difference between ...
the grey line and the black line may be determined by the course of the conflict in Ukraine as we go into the winter...
Global renting ...
