Investment Strategy Insights

The latest research & strategic thinking from Tristan Capital Partners

From Simon Martin, Chief Investment Strategist & Head of Research

Nice McKinsey analysis … but …

It’s disingenuous to call it ‘new’ data … the Brookings Institute has produced urban/city GDP estimates for years - I know because we have been using them in our pitch materials to demonstrate the differences in economic activity between cities across regions for a while now … maybe they’ve augmented it with some nifty AI but ultimately it says the same thing…

BTW our point has been consistently the same … the US derives almost half its economic activity from 30 cities … Europe needs 60 cities to reach the same share of GDP … this tells us a lot about how the 2 regions are different and what is required in order to achieve a diversified economic allocation …

Comment on US ibanks from BBG...

I think that last sentence is interesting ... ibank economic analysts (source of research on 'smart money' is Goldman's strats & research team) have a vested interest in telling the world that the landing will be soft ... because the scale of ibank job losses is a function of the expected depth of the (earnings)recession... #turkeysvote4xmas...

Fed tightening might be nasty ...

But it is needed if wages and prices are to be controlled ... and frankly I don't know anyone who would choose unanchored inflation and a significant long term rise in the cost of capital over a simple recession...