This chart shows how economists have been revising down their estimates CPI - they have consistently over estimated the levels of CPI as the economy has slowed ... although energy prices will likely cause a further spike in CPI as we roll into the year end ... and we continue to believe that a tight labour market across the region (and supply chain frictions) will put a more solid floor under CPI (relative to the post GFC period) ... it is very apparent that the economy is not as strong as its US counterpart and that it wil need some support - given burgeoning budget deficits in many states this seems unlikely to be delivered by significant fiscal easing ... so we think that adds a faster pace of monetary easing and thus a steeper curve ... this is good for banks and should help bring credit back on line ... which given the credit sensitivity of the CRE sector will provide a strong cyclical impulse to CRE ... that should lift CRE values .... spinning up this system takes abit of time so in our opinion it will show up first in 'seculars' where the operating fundamentals have strong thematic tailwinds supporting them ... and then ripple out into the 'cyclicals' ...