The inflation swaps market has never believed inflation would go up significantly - but it only did so because the volatility of inflation was met with an increase in real yield ... when it comes to the loosening phase the real yield will be the critical constraint ... the level of inflation vol and hence the level at which real yields settle will depend on labour market tightness ... if you can add some spare capacity in the labour market then you stand a much better chance of reducing the eral yield requirement ...

If I was the Fed I'd want the unemployment/vacancies ratio to get up to 3x ... if you are interested in that ratio then ping me ... I am a big fan of using it to measure where the economy sits cyclically !