Investment Strategy Insights

Mag mania?

Cost of capital fall is boosting appetite for EU real estate ...

More to come?

US inflation ... already frontrunnig the tariff hike ...

Self evident in GDP and rates - major markets are heading in different directions...

In practice the US is going to try to grow it's way out of its challenges - which might take a bit of time given the oversupply problems  ... Europe will get a more immediate rate boost ... and it doesn't have any supply issues ... the key move

So 90's ...

I think we might be seeing something similar to the 90's CRE market as well ...

The other side of the DT2.0 trade ...

Poor old GBP getting dragged into the discussion despite the weak GDP outlook ...

2025 ...

For me 1 to 5 are baked ... 9 and 10 feel much the same but maybe US markets and US based Chief Econs haven't noticed ...  6,7,8  feel like areas where consensus is under-estimating the risk ... 11 and 12 are the tails ... BTW I'd never

One to watch into 2025...

No great surprises here ...

The NY office market is more polarised than Europe ... but the themes is similar ...

Cap rate moves ...

Repricing in Europe came quickly and, with the exception of the retail segments, almost everything took >20% value hit from cap rate moves ... it is worth noting that in cap rate terms the repricing was pretty similar to the GFC ... the difference between the 2 repricings really comes down

5year swap + prop co quote ...

Is a nice sound bite but the reality is if you own assets that are priced tight to the swap ... and there are in sectors where you are fighting a strong secular headwind that reduces your capacity to drive up net operating cashflows and limits your capacity to raise incremental

Predictions are tough to make... particularly about the future ...

h/t Yogi Berra

USD up ... US rates up ... EM down ...

It's been like this for a long time ...

Thought for the day ...

Love this slide ...

Markets create there own narrative for the real economy ... brilliant from Gavekal!

Tectonic investing ...

DT2.0 has unleashed a new paradigm ... some notes from John Authers excellent column...BTW if you want a good understand of the world we seem to be heading into I'd suggest reading Perry Mehrling's biography of CK - Money and Empire - its superb and

Not great if this continues ...

Love this chart ...

Tokyo office vacancy falls and capital flows follow ...

Eye-catching chart ...

The economic truism of tariff's ... it's all about being the least biggest looser ...

Which is why ... in the end ... this may just be another way of weaponising the US economy to suit geopolitical objectives ...

Private credit ... Moelis style ...

https://www.ft.com/content/d8f42dd4-ad27-452b-833a-439ab16da0c2

Herein lies a tale ...

14 years ago the currency was too strong and the economy was being choked ... now it is too weak and Brazil has an inflation problem ... this is part of the challenge of running an developing economy that is very trade sensitive ...

What's scary here is the log scale !!!

When I say scary its 'upside' scary ... the time scale is 15 years ...

Infiation uncertainty ... brings market volatility...