Investment Strategy Insights

Another great one ...

Love this macro/market cycle chart ...

I've also seen a better version via Gavekal that reframes it (from top left) with deflation (bust then boom) and inflation (boom then bust) ...

BCA view on European rates ...

175bps of cuts

Great chart ...

Real terms ... we are closing on that all time 'Volcker' high ...

Which at some point will weigh on corporate America ...

Everyone is talkin' about ...

The bulls say 5 years until there is a useful use case .... the bears 15 ... 10 is about the average ...

FED pause?

DT2.0 is long polar ...

Grrrr ...

Love a long run chart ...

Eye-catching ...

Echoes of prior CPI cycles ...

We will be seeing alot of this type of chart over the next 18 months or so ...

OK ... that's worth pausing and thinking about ...

US rate cuts ... done already ...?

Market implied inflation expectations ....

Musk ...

Testing the limits in international politics!

Not so unusual ...

Sorry Apollo but I hate to tell you ... Actually its very reminiscent of the cutting cycle in 1995 ...  75bps of cuts in response to perceived need to normalise as real GDP had slowed to 2.5% pa (from 6.3% nom to 4.6% nominal) in the prior qtrs... this

Market loves DT2.0 ...

And believes that the economy will follow ...

US office losses need to be cleaned out...

Speaking sense ... 1976 or 1996?

https://www.ft.com/content/12475330-4e8c-48ce-9ff2-c67c438ea065

Bond yields sending a message?

Trump's new NATO deal ???

I'd be willing to bet he will ask Europe to go to 3% ... and that he will be clear that the Europeans need to buy two thirds of it from US defense businesses (based on the US pro rata share of total NATO costs) ...  I'm guessing

Pace of CRE refi and market activity is going to pick up quickly in Europe...

Double bubble ...

Cockney style ...

The difference is down to the level of inflation volatilty ...

Nice chart .... I'd actually reframe it ... sub 4% yield correlation is almost always positive ... and its almost  always negative above 6% .... between the two its not clear ... which suggests that market context (narrative) intrudes alot ...  you will also note that once you get beyond a 6% bond yields

I'm just asking ...

Which end of this spectrum would you rather live in??? Invest in ???  Tricky isn't it...???

France ... energy exporter ...