Investment Strategy Insights

As goes rates ... so goes stocks ...

IMHO ...

The transition from bank lending to private credit is going to be a similar secular shift to the one we saw in the late 90s and through the 2000 and 2010s on the equity side ...  in the early 90s CRE equity investing was largely the preserve of pensions and insurers

Narrowness ...

Time has come for a proper debate ...

Brexit has been an umitigated disaster for the UK ... it's time to debate what comes next...

US CPI ...

Remarkable ecosystem ...

That all boils back to data and CHIPs ...

Betting big on London & office ...

CPI is on track ... time to focus on growth ...

Room remains for cuts ...

Love a hyper long run chart ...

Nice chart ... but ...

Someone needs to calc what the implied trailing 10yr PE would be if it made it to 24 months ...  and equally what happens in a 5th year when a market makes 4 back to back 20%+ gains ... off the back of 7 stocks ...  my guess is that it's

Alt view ...

The chart label suggests gold is expensive - of course it might just be because US real incomes have lagged behind the reality of the world economy as it is being remade ...

European rainfall patterns ...

European growth mapped ...

European delevering ...

Interesting the Irish, Spanish, German and Dutch episodes shown here all occurred in periods of relatively high rates and were driven by higher than expected growth/deregulation ... which suggests that delevering using demand deflation, fiscal tightening and ending up with zero rates is not a viable escape path ...

Gosh ... I'm not sure I am adjusted for living to 160...

Nicely put ...

Sovereign seigniorage ...

Really ... are we really believing that a digital driving licence is going to unlock the potential of the UK economy ...

US productivity & where it comes from ...

Done deal ...

Here we go folks ... this is going to be wild!

The awesome thing is that I am heading over to the US at the end of next week ... its going to be so interesting to be there at such a pivotal point in time...

Nice piece of US office analysis ...

From MSCI - I am with Jim - US office owners aren't fully reflecting the leasing risk they are experiencing in their NAV ...

Interesting ...

The reality is that outside tech Europe & US aren't on a particularly different path...

Underwhelming forward looking returns?