Investment Strategy Insights

Charts like this always make me twitchy ...

Just to remind everyone ...

This is why Europe rates are coming down and why the ECB may go below 2% ...

Context ...

Couple of Mag-7 charts...

Deluge of trade analysis ...

Great point here ... ultimately the US preference is for a small deficit ... which in part means that people who export alot of what they make are being asked to consume more of wat they make and send less of it overseas ... it equally infers that running your currency 'cheap&

Loving the Sun Tzu reference ...

He also said 'all warfare is based on deception'...

Said it time and time again ...

These are places where investors hide most typical from political uncertainty, currency vol and inflation vol

Interesting slide ...

Love the wombles reference ...

If you are not from the UK this may be confusing ...  so here's a quick link ...But the message is clear - threat of tariffs are going to be used to extract concessions ...  or to bring people to the negotiating table ... and when its your biggest trade partner

DT is going to take aim at this ...

Curiously it broadly equates to the difference in defence spending between EU's current average level and US current levels (as % of GDP) ... so my guess is those two concepts will get linked ...

Tariffs might increase US inflation but...

They will slow economies that export to the US and that may, in turn lead to European rates falling further than most expect in the near term ... which will boost domestic demand in the European economy in 2026 and at same time increase the effect of any credit impulse in

Thoughtful from Dario Perkins @ TSL ...

Interesting perspective ...

May be a running theme ... revalue or tariff ... you choose ...  ??

Here comes the rollercoaster ...

What a week ... tariffs and tech ...

Gold ATH .. tariff effect?

Nice chart ... Spain leads ...

Com'on Europe ... let's show'em how ...

Cut ... more to come...

Cost of Brexit laid bare - great FT article...

https://on.ft.com/3PWsdam

Europe is not being given enough attention!

Values have corrected - funds have taken their marks - rates are coming down quickly and the region is step up for a better growth outlook thru 25 into 26 ...  and the currency is cheap ...Also lots of secular opportunity in CRE space - both on equity side where portfolios

Boom ...??

Spain performing quite nicely ...

Eye-catching ... 'risk of undershoot'

Great chart ...