TCP Research

Bullish for European private markets assets & CRE ...

From our good friends at Gavekal ... note particularly that lending is picking up everywhere in marked contrast to the last cycle ... this one doesn't involve private sector or state deleveraging ...

Bullish for European private markets assets & CRE ...

From our good friends at Gavekal ... note particularly that lending is picking up everywhere in marked contrast to the last cycle ... this o

Three things here ...

Adversarial geo-economic policies make it harder to keep pushing for over allocation to US assets and ... at the same time ...the world has gotten itself over allocated to US assets ... so if the appetite to keep re-buying into that position shifts (even if its moves slowly and incrementally as it

Three things here ...

Adversarial geo-economic policies make it harder to keep pushing for over allocation to US assets and ... at the same time ...the world has gotten itself over allocated to US assets ... so if the appetite to keep re-buying into that position shifts (even if its moves slowly and incrementally as it

Is this a harbinger of demand led US recession (as some think) or a supply chain effect that stems from excessive inventory builds ahead of the tariffs ???

Is this a harbinger of demand led recession or a supply chain effect that stems from excessive inventory builds ahead of the tariffs ???

The risk (cost) of being over allocated USD has gone up ...

Great article...

https://on.ft.com/4izOFmq

Fair comment ...

This was written about Heathrow's power outage ... but it probably applies more widely about alot of what we see in the world  ...  ultimately piling on layers of oversight, having multiple stakeholders and a incredible web of regulations and a lot of reports and studies on the problem (see

Fair comment ...

This was written about Heathrow's power outage ... but it probably applies more widely ...  ulitmately piling on layers of oversight and regulation didn't address the underlying fragility of the system ... a single point of failure is still a single point of failure ...

Anyone else wondering what happened to US law school applications in say ... 2008?

That's quite a chart!!

Both in terms of the data itself and in terms of the forecast in-accuracy!!!

Feels like a game-changing moment ...

Both structurally and ... Cyclically...

Without wanting to sound like a broken record ...

Stagflation is an outcome that is typically realised when structural supply side changes occur at point when the economy is running at full capacity ... and when that happens typically bonds stop hedging stocks ... and currencies become more volatile ... the lessons of the past suggest that when this happens you are

Note the divergence in the Fed's view in long run rates ...

I can't ever recall that much dispersion ...

ZEW is volatile but it does tend to be a leading growth indicator...

The tough piece ...

No one cares about trade in and of itself ... but they care alot about the impact that limiting has on their wallet...

The tough piece ...

No one cares about trade in of itself ... but they care alot about the impact that limiting has on their wallet...

This is front of my mind ...

My basic position is that the world is now far less certain than it was and ultimately portfolios cannot afford to not be diversified ...

This is front of my mind ...

My basic position is that the world is now far less certain than it was and ultimately portfolios cannot afford to not be diversified ...

Seems like the market has questions...

US exceptionalism is waning?

Seems like the market has questions...

That's actually a pretty big commitment ...!

USD smile at risk?

German retooling ...