Credit is hugely important as an accelerator of economic momentum and as a catalyst for real estate cyclical excess - keeping a close eye on the impulse it provides is therefore critical to cycles. It’s absence ... or at least its inability to accelerate faster than nominal GDP is a major factor playing into why in Europe ... after what seems like a relatively long period of recovery ... we don’t have any real signs of a systemic speculative behaviour in our sector ... maybe the first signs of speculative development activity are visible in some cities or property types that are being chased by core investors or perhaps elsewhere in the financial system where capital is swamping the stock of higher quality cash flowing assets (ie leveraged loans or tech stocks) ... but for once and to paraphrase Milton Friedman ... speculation is NOT always and everywhere a real estate phenomenon...