You would expect a term premium of some sort ... and TBH ... 50bps is pretty tight...
In a world where inflation is more volatile...
Is China's urban-rural shift slowing?
European is capital constrained and priced for a recession with rates now coming down and the euro sold off ... how long before capital flows start to ramp???
Expected ...
And about time as well!
Productivity or QE?
UK election polling
Note reform is pulling Tory votes across ... which may allow labour to clean up...
CPI surprises point to a floor ...
And the floor isn't the target ... so we need to see more easing in the jobs market ...
Interesting ...
Price levels change ...
2% as a target is largely about insuring stability in the price level ...
I tend to agree ...
US isn't in recession and their is some evidence of reflation ... the European economy is in recession and real rates are too high ... Europe was the first to go into price correction ... and it may well be the first to emerge ...
